Bottom-up financial model. Dual growth engines. 3-layer cost flywheel. Every number sourced, stress-tested, and IC-ready. Revenue from subscriptions, leads marketplace, and CRE enterprise — modeled across NYC full-market and county-wide Tool-Only expansion. *
$58.8M
Y3 ARR
90.1%
Y3 Gross Margin
14.5:1
LTV:CAC
$266K–$528K
Hard ROI / Building / Year
4–7×
ARPU Multiplier
8 mo
To 1,000 Agents
SEC-VerifiedProjectedDerived from Verified
Section 01 — Three-Year Revenue Trajectory
$3.1M → $19.0M → $58.8M ARR
Bottom-up model: phased partner onboarding with 4-month integration lag, 0.33% PMS penetration by Y3, full-platform ARPU stacking. Uses 75–78% gross margin Y1 (below actual 80.7%) for investor safety.
Metric
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Active Partner Integrations
3 (BMX, Brivo, Seam)
6 (+Zillow, Yardi, Entrata)
9 (Full Ecosystem)
Buildings on Platform
900
4,500
14,200
Units Under Management
120,000
600,000
1,960,000
Agent SaaS Subscribers (Full-Market)
350
1,800
5,500
Agent SaaS Subscribers (Tool-Only)
150
1,000
3,000
Platform SaaS Revenue (Buildings)
$1.8M
$10.2M
$35.4M
Agent Subscription Revenue (Full-Market)
$0.5M
$3.2M
$8.8M
Agent Subscription Revenue (Tool-Only)
$0.1M
$0.9M
$2.5M
Insurance/Deposit Commissions
$0.4M
$3.2M
$9.8M
Leads Marketplace (Demand-Side)
$0.1M
$1.2M
$4.6M
CRE Enterprise Revenue
$0.0M
$0.8M
$3.2M
Energy/ESG Revenue Share
$0.1M
$1.8M
$6.2M
Metered AI & Tour Services
$0.3M
$1.4M
$3.5M
Payments Processing
$0.2M
$0.8M
$1.4M
Total ARR
$3.5M
$23.5M
$75.4M
Blended Gross Margin
75–78%
83–86%
86–90%
LTV:CAC (Blended)
7.3:1
11.5:1
14.5:1
Note: The $58.8M base case excludes agent subscription revenue, leads demand-side, and CRE enterprise. Including all revenue engines yields $75.4M Y3 ARR — the conservative base case for IC presentation remains $58.8M (building platform only).
Section 02 — Dual Growth Engines
Two Revenue Engines That Scale Independently
Engine 1 is partner-led and building-centric. Engine 2 scales county-wide without requiring a marketplace license. An agent in Dallas subscribes to RA for Voice AI, AI Copilot, scheduling, and CRM tools — pure SaaS — without RA hosting a single listing in that county. Agent revenue scales geographically independent of building partnerships.
Engine
Revenue Model
Geographic Constraint
Partner Dependency
Y3 ARR Contribution
1. Building Platform
ARPU-stacked per unit ($2–$5/unit/mo + insurance + energy + leads)
Requires partner integration in market
High (BMX, Brivo, Seam, PMS)
$58.8M
2. Agent SaaS (Full-Market)
$89–$1,299/mo per agent — full listing + tools
NYC + markets with marketplace license
Low (Zillow/CoStar for syndication)
$8.8M
2b. Agent SaaS (Tool-Only)
$59–$899/mo per agent — Voice AI, Copilot, CRM, scheduling only
Full-market tiers include listing syndication, marketplace placement, and MLS infrastructure. Tool-Only tiers launch in any US county without marketplace licensing — higher margins (~85% blended) because listing infrastructure costs are excluded. This is the county-wide expansion engine.
Tier
Full-Market
Tool-Only
COGS (Full)
Margin Y1
Margin Y3
Agent Pro
$89/mo
$59/mo
$14.23
84.0%
91.7%
Agent Elite
$149/mo
$99/mo
$32.26
78.3%
88.7%
Agent Team
$499/mo
$349/mo
$89.95
82.0%
90.6%
Agent Enterprise
$1,299/mo
$899/mo
$263.61
79.7%
89.4%
Blended Margin
$200 avg
$140 avg
—
80.7%
90.1% / 85% (Tool)
Tool-Only tiers excluded: Listing syndication (MLS/Zillow/StreetEasy), marketplace placement, seller matching. Tool-Only tiers included: Voice AI, Nelo AI Copilot, AI flyer/video generation, scheduling, CRM, lead scoring, DAV verification, FairScreen.
Commercial real estate transactions are 10–100× larger than residential. A REIT paying $15K/mo for AI lease abstraction + ASC 842 compliance across a 50-property portfolio saves $200K/yr in accounting overhead. 7 CRE sub-features in the codebase — none reflected in the base $58.8M model.
CRE Capability
Module
Competitive Alternative
RA Advantage
AI Lease Abstraction
NLP document parsing
Manual paralegal ($150–$300/hr)
90% cost reduction, 30-second processing
ASC 842 Lease Accounting
Automated compliance
LeaseAccelerator ($50K+/yr)
Integrated in platform, no separate vendor
LL97 Carbon Compliance
Energy/ESG module
$268/tCO2e penalties
Automated tracking + penalty avoidance
Deal Room + Analytics
AI underwriting copilot
Argus ($2K–$5K/seat/yr)
AI-enhanced, integrated with Nelo
Tenant Creditworthiness
FairScreen CRE variant
Manual financial review
3-model consensus + ZKP verification
CAM Reconciliation
Automated calculation
Manual accounting
Real-time, dispute-proof audit trail
Digital Twin / 3DGS
Phone-captured tours
Matterport ($1,200+/mo)
$0 hardware, integrated in platform
$200K
Y1 CRE Revenue
$3.2M
Y3 CRE Revenue
$12–18M
Y5 CRE Potential
Section 05 — Partner Channel Attribution
Y3 Building Platform ARR by Channel
ButterflyMX$21.6M (37%)
$21.6M
Yardi + Entrata + AppFolio$18.0M (31%)
$18.0M
Brivo + Seam$15.0M (25%)
$15.0M
Zillow + CoStar$4.2M (7%)
$4.2M
No single partner exceeds 37% of Y3 ARR. BMX concentration decreases as PMS and marketplace channels activate in Y2.
Section 06 — Partner Addressable Reach
Bottom-Up TAM by Partner Penetration
Year-by-year penetration targets showing conservative addressable reach per partner. Not hand-waved TAM — modeled pipeline.
Partner
Installed Base
RA Target % by Y3
RA Reach (Y3)
Source
ButterflyMX
20,000+ buildings, 1.5M+ units
21%
~4,200 buildings
BMX 2025 Year in Review ¹
Brivo
100,000+ locations globally
5%
~5,000 locations
Brivo.com post-Eagle Eye merger ²
Allegion (Campus)
$4.07B rev, institutional dominance
2%
~100 campuses
Allegion FY2025 10-K ³
Seam (FSBO/STR)
1,000+ companies, 29+ brands
10%
~5,000 properties
Seam.co ⁴
PMS (Yardi/Entrata/AppFolio)
15M+ combined units
0.33%
~49,500 units
SEC filings ⁵ ⁶
BMX: 21% of 20K buildings4,200
21%
Seam: 10% of FSBO/STR5,000
10%
Brivo: 5% of 100K locations5,000
5%
Allegion: 2% campus TAM100
2%
Section 07 — Full-Platform ARPU Stacking
$4,645–$8,290/Mo Per 200-Unit Building
7 revenue streams stack per building + agent demand-side leads. Model only the SaaS fee and you capture 12–15% of actual revenue. The 4–7× multiplier is the engine that drives $58.8M+ from buildings alone.
Buildings generate leads (supply). Agents buy verified leads (demand). DAV-verified leads convert at 12%+ vs Zillow ~3%. The demand-side revenue scales with agent subscriber count — not building count — creating an independent growth vector.
Lead Tier
Verification Level
Price Per Lead
Expected Conversion
What Agent Gets
Bronze
Basic identity check
$25
5–8%
Name, contact, interest signal
Silver
DAV identity + income range
$75
8–12%
+ Verified income band, move timeline
Gold
Full DAV + FairScreen pre-screen
$150
12–18%
+ Pre-qualified, compliance-cleared
Platinum
Complete profile + tour completed
$750
25–35%
+ Virtual tour viewed, Q&A answered, ready to sign
Three independent cost reduction vectors that compound. Layer 1 avoids the LLM call entirely. Layer 2 reduces token count on cache misses. Layer 3 routes to cheapest capable model. The published 80.7% Y1 margin is conservative — real margin with all 3 layers could be 83–85% from day one.
6 mechanisms driving NOI improvement. At 5.5% cap rate, the high end implies $9.6M in asset value add — from a software layer costing $6K–$8.4K/yr. That's a 31–88× ROI. No rational operator cancels.
RA Capability
NOI Mechanism
Annual Value / 200 Units
Source
Predictive Maintenance
15–25% maintenance budget reduction
$75K–$125K
CBRE/JLL benchmarks
Tenant Churn Prevention
10–15% renewal rate improvement
$75K–$151K
Tenex: 85% prediction accuracy
Self-Guided Tours (HAL)
54–86% higher tour conversion
$50K–$100K
Tour24/Brivo partnership data
FairScreen Compliance
Eliminate 90%+ fraud before lease
$21K–$42K
NMHC 2024 Pulse Survey ¹⁰
Voice AI (Nelo)
50% leasing staff reduction
$30K–$60K
EliseAI benchmarks ⁹
Energy/ESG (LL97)
Carbon penalty avoidance + EV revenue
$15K–$50K
NYC LL97 published rates
Total Hard ROI
All 6 mechanisms combined
$266K–$528K/yr
—
$9.6M
Asset Value Add (High)
$528K ÷ 5.5% cap rate
$4.84M
Asset Value Add (Low)
$266K ÷ 5.5% cap rate
31–88×
Platform ROI
$266K–$528K value ÷ $6K–$8.4K cost
Section 11 — Capital Efficiency
Partner-Led CAC: $150–$300 · 8 Months to 1,000 Agents
RA reaches 1,000 agents in 8 months vs 18-month industry median — 56% faster at 42–71% lower cost. Partner-led distribution bypasses top-of-funnel marketing entirely. Zillow Tech Connect alone exposes RA to 240M+ monthly users.
$518
PropTech Median CAC
$150–$300
RA Partner-Led CAC
8 mo
To 1,000 Agents
vs 18mo industry median (56% faster)
14.5:1
Y3 LTV:CAC
Elite tier (7:1+ = premium valuation)
Section 12 — Stress Test: Partner Exit Scenario
V-Shaped Recovery — BMX Exit at Month 12
Worst case: ButterflyMX terminates API at Month 12. RA's Hard ROI ($266K–$528K/yr) means property managers are financially compelled to replace BMX hardware rather than lose the RA OS. Seam's 29-brand abstraction enables hardware swap in 30–60 days.
Month 1–11
11.5:1
LTV:CAC at baseline
Month 12
Exit
BMX terminates OAuth API
Month 13–14
6.0:1
CAC spikes to $800. Still above 3:1 survival.
Month 15
Recovery
Seam adapter online. Yale/Schlage swap.
Month 16+
14.5:1
Full recovery. ARPU intact.
29+
Seam Device Brands
30–60 days
Hardware Swap
6.0:1
Floor LTV:CAC
Even worst case exceeds 3:1 minimum
Section 13 — Why Now: The Regulatory Burning Platform
FARE Act · Colorado ADAI · NYC LL144 · $230M+ in Enforcement *
Mandatory algorithmic compliance for every platform using AI in housing decisions. 93.3% of operators experienced fraud (NMHC 2024 ¹⁰). 84.3% faced fabricated pay stubs. 23.8% of evictions are fraud-linked. $4.2M average portfolio bad debt.* No incumbent has automated this.
93.3%
Operators Hit by Fraud
NMHC 2024 Survey ¹⁰
84.3%
Fabricated Pay Stubs
23.8%
Evictions Fraud-Linked
$4.2M
Avg Portfolio Bad Debt
Works Cited
* All RA internal projections (revenue trajectories, ARPU stacking, COGS modeling, CRE pricing, leads marketplace pricing, agent tier pricing, and NOI mechanisms) are founder estimates based on bottom-up financial modeling. All data sources and methodologies listed below.
